Europe is quietly grappling with a surge in undersea sabotage incidents, targeting critical infrastructure like internet cables and power lines across the Baltic Sea. Experts and officials warn that Russia may be escalating its “gray zone” warfare — covert attacks that stop short of open conflict but stir chaos and fear.
Ilja Iljin, deputy commander of Finland’s coast guard, leads a high-tech surveillance effort monitoring the vast Gulf of Finland, yet multiple sabotage cases have occurred — with at least 11 undersea cables damaged since 2023.
Though most incidents haven’t disrupted daily life, the potential stakes are enormous. Severing cables between countries like Norway and the EU could unleash widespread energy shortages, soaring prices, or worse — especially in winter. Ireland and Malta, with limited infrastructure, are particularly vulnerable.
Many of the attacks remain unsolved, but Western officials suspect Russia or its allies, like Chinese vessels, may be responsible — exploiting international law loopholes and Europe’s limited power to police global waters.
Repairs are slow and costly — up to €150 million — and sabotage is cheap: sometimes as simple as dragging a ship anchor. While NATO and the EU are boosting patrols, investing in new cables, drones, and AI detection tools, the scale of the sea makes prevention nearly impossible.
Legal obstacles further complicate enforcement. Outside territorial waters, suspicious ships are protected by “innocent passage” laws and the jurisdiction of their home countries — often unwilling to cooperate.
Back on patrol, Iljin is realistic. “We know where the cables are. We’ve prepared,” he says. But with Russia testing limits and U.S. support wavering, Europe may be on its own in defending its underwater lifelines.
